From the Bridge

Maritime intelligence insights, product deep-dives, and the occasional war story from building ArcNautical.

102 OFAC-sanctioned ships trace to a Hong Kong company. Two fly the Hong Kong flag.
Jun 5, 2026 · 8 min read

102 OFAC-sanctioned ships trace to a Hong Kong company. Two fly the Hong Kong flag.

The Hong Kong flag is Paris/Tokyo MoU white-listed and clean. Yet 102 OFAC-sanctioned vessels are linked by OFAC to a Hong Kong-registered company — 72 distinct entities, almost none HK-flagged. The exposure is in the corporate layer, not the flag. Issue 01 of the ArcNautical Hong Kong Ownership-Layer Brief.

sanctionshong-kongshadow-fleetownershipcorporate-layercompliance
We open-sourced the routing engine behind ArcNautical's voyage scorer
May 23, 2026 · 4 min read

We open-sourced the routing engine behind ArcNautical's voyage scorer

Zero dependencies, 42 passing tests, 1,790 real-world routes with 0% land crossing, 510+ port database. The production routing engine that powers our voyage scoring is now free on npm under MIT.

open-sourcenpmtypescriptroutingmaritimepathfinding
Only 2.3% of the OFAC-sanctioned fleet flies a transparent flag
May 19, 2026 · 7 min read

Only 2.3% of the OFAC-sanctioned fleet flies a transparent flag

We ran every OFAC-designated vessel through the same flag classifier our dossiers use. Of 1,445 with a recorded flag, only 33 fly a transparent public-register flag. Issue 01 of the ArcNautical Dark-Fleet Flag Brief.

sanctionsdark-fleetshadow-fleetflag-statedata-reportcompliance
The EU just sanctioned a port in Indonesia. Quarterly screening is now a liability.
Apr 29, 2026 · 9 min read

The EU just sanctioned a port in Indonesia. Quarterly screening is now a liability.

The EU's 20th sanctions package listed Karimun Oil Terminal — the first time Brussels has designated a third-country port for shadow-fleet activity. The compliance implications are larger than the headline.

sanctionsshadow-fleetEU-sanctionsvessel-vettingcomplianceP&I
How to Calculate Sea Routes in JavaScript
Mar 23, 2026 · 12 min read

How to Calculate Sea Routes in JavaScript

There's no good open-source maritime routing library in JavaScript. So we built one — A* on an ocean bitmap, 510+ ports, weather-aware ETA. Here's how it works.

open-sourceroutingpathfindingtypescriptengineering
The Ownership Opacity Problem: Why Binary Sanctions Screening Misses Multi-Hop Evasion
Mar 22, 2026 · 11 min read

The Ownership Opacity Problem: Why Binary Sanctions Screening Misses Multi-Hop Evasion

Binary vessel sanctions screening only checks vessel names against watchlists. It misses the multi-hop ownership chains that sanctions evaders actually use.

sanctionsownershipOFACcomplianceGLEIF
The Strait of Hormuz just closed. Here's what the data actually shows.
Mar 21, 2026 · 10 min read

The Strait of Hormuz just closed. Here's what the data actually shows.

3,200 vessels stranded, 20,000 seafarers trapped, and war risk premiums still catching up. We ran the numbers on the largest chokepoint disruption in modern maritime history.

route-intelligencestrait-of-hormuzwar-riskchokepointmarine-insurance
Three agencies track maritime piracy. They don't agree on the numbers.
Mar 20, 2026 · 9 min read

Three agencies track maritime piracy. They don't agree on the numbers.

IMB, ReCAAP, and UKMTO each publish piracy data. Their coverage areas overlap in some places, miss entirely in others, and classify the same incident differently. Here's what that means for anyone pricing risk.

industry-analysispiracydata-qualityrisk-assessment
The Malacca Strait is scoring disruption 50 right now. Here's what's behind the number.
Mar 19, 2026 · 8 min read

The Malacca Strait is scoring disruption 50 right now. Here's what's behind the number.

94,000 vessels a year pass through a channel 1.5 nautical miles wide. Our chokepoint monitor currently shows Malacca at disruption 50 — the highest of any strait we track. Here's what the data says.

route-intelligencemalacca-straitchokepointpiracy
Your voyage scored 50. Here's what the ten signals behind that number actually mean.
Mar 18, 2026 · 9 min read

Your voyage scored 50. Here's what the ten signals behind that number actually mean.

JWC Listed Areas: 100. Sanctions Exposure: 100. Composite risk score: 50. A Fujairah-to-Djibouti tanker run decomposed signal by signal.

productvoyage-riskscoringunderwriting
The marine insurance market is running on vibes
Mar 17, 2026 · 8 min read

The marine insurance market is running on vibes

The JWC listed area committee meets quarterly. NAVWARNs update every 15 minutes. 369 are active right now. Somewhere between those two cadences, billions in war risk premiums get priced on institutional memory.

opinionwar-riskmarine-insuranceunderwriting
500 simulations, one voyage: how Monte Carlo turns ETA guesses into probability
Mar 16, 2026 · 10 min read

500 simulations, one voyage: how Monte Carlo turns ETA guesses into probability

A laden tanker on a 2,222nm Fujairah-to-Djibouti run has a 10% chance of arriving 157 hours late. Here's how we know that — and why a single ETA number is always wrong.

technicalmonte-carlovoyage-riskalgorithms
OFAC SDN: what the sanctions list actually contains (and why matching against it is hard)
Mar 15, 2026 · 9 min read

OFAC SDN: what the sanctions list actually contains (and why matching against it is hard)

The OFAC SDN list has 12,000+ entries. About 400 are vessels. Here's what the data looks like, why fuzzy matching matters, and what most screening tools get wrong.

data-sourcesanctionsvessel-vettingcompliance
What a fleet manager's morning actually looks like with real-time risk data
Mar 14, 2026 · 8 min read

What a fleet manager's morning actually looks like with real-time risk data

Five vessels, three active chokepoints on alert, 369 NAVWARNs. Here's how a mid-size fleet operator would actually use ArcNautical from login to first coffee.

use-casefleet-managementvoyage-riskmaritime
We built a maritime intelligence platform. Here's why.
Mar 13, 2026 · 6 min read

We built a maritime intelligence platform. Here's why.

Most voyage risk tools are glorified spreadsheets. We wanted something that actually thinks about routes the way an underwriter does — so we built ArcNautical.

productmaritimeinsurance
The Gulf of Aden problem: what the risk data actually shows
Mar 13, 2026 · 7 min read

The Gulf of Aden problem: what the risk data actually shows

We ran every Fujairah-to-Djibouti route variant through 10 intelligence signals. The numbers tell a different story than the headlines.

route-intelligencegulf-of-adenpiracywar-risk