Russian Baltic crude from Ust-Luga to India’s Mundra — the long sanctioned-origin haul around Europe and through Suez.
As of 2026-09-13, ArcNautical scores the 6,817 nm Ust-Luga → Mundra corridor 80/100 — High risk, and avoiding the Red Sea via the Cape of Good Hope adds about 3,987 nm / 12 days over the Suez routing. Signals: Joint War Committee, ReCAAP/IMB piracy, ACLED/GDELT conflict, marine weather.
Last computed 2026-09-13 · Risk signals from ArcNautical's voyage engine · data confidence 82% · refreshed weekly. This score moves with conditions on the lane.
High risk. The Red Sea / Bab-el-Mandeb war-risk corridor is the dominant exposure on this lane. The Cape of Good Hope diversion remains the conservative routing assumption.
ArcNautical's voyage engine composites eleven independent intelligence signals along the actual sea route, then weights each by how much it is driving risk on this corridor right now. Bar width = current severity of that signal; the percentage = its share of the composite score.
Listed-area intersections come from the Joint War Committee (JWC) hull-war zones, tested against the route geometry — not a country list. These are the areas underwriters load war-risk premium for.
1 recent piracy / armed-robbery incident logged within 100 nm of the route (most recent: hijacking near the Gulf of Aden).
This route runs 17% of its distance through sanctioned waters. A leg inside a sanctioned EEZ is where AIS-gap, dark-STS and shadow-fleet activity concentrate — the geography compliance teams have to be able to defend.
Route transits 4 sanctioned EEZ(s): Libya [UNSC] (6%), Yemen [OFAC, UNSC] (6%), Federal Republic of Somalia [OFAC, UNSC] (4%), Russia [OFAC] (1%). 11 other EEZ(s): Oman (7%), Egypt (6%), Eritrea (5%), Halaib Triangle (5%), India (4%), Sweden (3%), Estonia (1%), Morocco (1%), Djibouti (1%), Algeria (1%), Latvia (0%)
Geography is only half the question. Before you fix the cargo, screen the specific vessel and its ownership chain against OFAC / EU / UN / UK lists:
Run a free vessel sanctions check →This profile is the corridor baseline. Run the live scorer with your vessel, load condition, speed and departure date for a voyage-specific risk read, a Monte-Carlo ETA distribution, and a downloadable report.
Open the live voyage scorer →Freight platforms price this lane. ArcNautical tells you what could go wrong on it.
Run the same Ust-Luga to Mundra route through the Voyage Risk API playground, inspect the JSON contract, and request a test key for your integration.
Open this route in the API playground →Forwarders and importers running several corridors can watch them together — a weekly risk brief for your whole lane portfolio and an alert the moment any one materially changes.
Monitor all your customers’ lanes →ArcNautical scores it 80/100 — High risk. The largest drivers are JWC Listed Areas, Piracy Incidents, Conflict Events. The route crosses Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandeb and Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean high-risk waters, and runs 17% of its distance through sanctioned waters.
Danish Straits, Strait of Gibraltar, Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb. Total distance 6,817 nautical miles, roughly 20 days at 14 knots.
Routing via the Suez Canal is about 20 days at 14 knots. Diverting around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea / Bab-el-Mandeb adds roughly 3,987 nautical miles and 12 extra days — about 32 days end to end.
Route transits 4 sanctioned EEZ(s): Libya [UNSC] (6%), Yemen [OFAC, UNSC] (6%), Federal Republic of Somalia [OFAC, UNSC] (4%), Russia [OFAC] (1%). 11 other EEZ(s): Oman (7%), Egypt (6%), Eritrea (5%), Halaib Triangle (5%), India (4%), Sweden (3%), Estonia (1%), Morocco (1%), Djibouti (1%), Algeria (1%), Latvia (0%)