Nhava Sheva (JNPT) → Rotterdam Shipping Route: Risk Profile

Current status · last computed 2026-06-29 · weekly

Elevated risk. Active war-risk / piracy exposure on the Red Sea approaches — confirm whether the carrier is still routing via Suez or has diverted around the Cape.

7-day changeBaseline established — this is the first weekly computation on record for this lane.
Suez vs CapeThe Suez routing is ~18 days at 14 kn. If the Red Sea is avoided, the Cape of Good Hope route adds +3,798 nm / +11 days (≈29 days end-to-end).
EvidenceJoint War Committee (JWC) · ReCAAP / IMB piracy · ACLED / GDELT conflict · Marine weather · OFAC / EU / UN / UK sanctions

Why this lane scores Elevated — the 11 signals

ArcNautical's voyage engine composites eleven independent intelligence signals along the actual sea route, then weights each by how much it is driving risk on this corridor right now. Bar width = current severity of that signal; the percentage = its share of the composite score.

JWC Listed Areas 15% of score

Route transits 3 JWC listed area(s): Libya, Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean (HRA), Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb severity 73/100 · 3 signals

Piracy Incidents 14% of score

2 piracy incident(s) within 100nm of route severity 19/100 · 2 signals

Conflict Events 12% of score

39 conflict events within 200nm: 28 armed conflict(s), 11 military incident(s) | Auto-detected conflict zone(s): Indian Ocean (auto-detected), East Mediterranean (auto-detected), Conflict Zone (53°N 3°W) (auto-detected) severity 100/100 · 39 signals

Marine Weather 11% of score

Moderate to rough seas: 0.0m waves, 39kt winds | Seasonal: Arabian Sea monsoon/cyclone season (1.6x baseline risk, June) severity 92/100 · 5 signals

Sanctions Exposure 8% of score

Transit through YE (OFAC, EU, UNSC); Transit through SO (OFAC, EU, UNSC); Transit through LY (EU, UNSC) severity 90/100 · 3 signals

Dark Activity 8% of score

125 dark activity event(s) within 80nm: 31 high, 91 medium severity 90/100 · 125 signals

Country Risk 8% of score

Route near 14 elevated-risk country/countries: IN, NL, YE, SO, SA, SD, EG, ES, MA, GB, FR, LY, DZ, BE severity 27/100 · 14 signals

Natural Disasters 7% of score

1 disaster event(s) within 200nm: 1 earthquake severity 18/100 · 1 signal

Navigational Warnings 6% of score

No active navigational warnings near route severity 0/100

Chokepoint Disruption 6% of score

Route transits 2 chokepoint(s): Suez Canal (normal), Bab el-Mandeb (normal) severity 0/100

AIS Disruptions 5% of score

No AIS disruptions near route severity 0/100

War-risk & piracy zones on this route

Listed-area intersections come from the Joint War Committee (JWC) hull-war zones, tested against the route geometry — not a country list. These are the areas underwriters load war-risk premium for.

WAR RISK Libya 11% of route inside the listed area
PIRACY (HRA) Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean (HRA) 20% of route inside the listed area
WAR RISK Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb 2% of route inside the listed area

2 recent piracy / armed-robbery incidents logged within 100 nm of the route (most recent: armed robbery near the Gulf of Aden).

Sanctions exposure on the corridor

This route runs 21% of its distance through sanctioned waters. A leg inside a sanctioned EEZ is where AIS-gap, dark-STS and shadow-fleet activity concentrate — the geography compliance teams have to be able to defend.

Route transits 3 sanctioned EEZ(s): Yemen [OFAC, UNSC] (9%), Libya [UNSC] (7%), Federal Republic of Somalia [OFAC, UNSC] (5%). 11 other EEZ(s): Egypt (7%), Eritrea (6%), Halaib Triangle (6%), France (4%), India (4%), United Kingdom (1%), Netherlands (1%), Algeria (1%), Morocco (1%), Djibouti (1%), Belgium (1%)

Geography is only half the question. Before you fix the cargo, screen the specific vessel and its ownership chain against OFAC / EU / UN / UK lists:

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FAQ

Is the Nhava Sheva (JNPT) to Rotterdam shipping route high risk?

ArcNautical scores it 54/100 — Elevated risk. The largest drivers are JWC Listed Areas, Piracy Incidents, Conflict Events. The route crosses Libya and Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean (HRA) and Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, and runs 21% of its distance through sanctioned waters.

Which chokepoints does the Nhava Sheva (JNPT)–Rotterdam route cross?

Bab el-Mandeb, Suez Canal, Strait of Gibraltar. Total distance 6,044 nautical miles, roughly 18 days at 14 knots.

How much longer is the Nhava Sheva (JNPT) to Rotterdam route if ships avoid the Red Sea?

Routing via the Suez Canal is about 18 days at 14 knots. Diverting around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea / Bab-el-Mandeb adds roughly 3,798 nautical miles and 11 extra days — about 29 days end to end.

Does the Nhava Sheva (JNPT) to Rotterdam route pass through sanctioned waters?