Iran → China crude corridor · live voyage risk

🇮🇷 Kharg Island → Qingdao 🇨🇳

Iran’s main crude export terminal at Kharg Island to China, via Hormuz and Malacca.

As of 2026-07-26, ArcNautical scores the 6,174 nm Kharg Island → Qingdao corridor 47/100 — Elevated risk. Signals: Joint War Committee, ReCAAP/IMB piracy, ACLED/GDELT conflict, marine weather.

47/100
Elevated risk
100% data confidence · 11 live signals

Last computed 2026-07-26 · Risk signals from ArcNautical's voyage engine · data confidence 100% · refreshed weekly. This score moves with conditions on the lane.

Distance
6,174 nm
Transit (est. @ 14 kn)
~18.4 days
Chokepoints crossed
3
Live sea-state (max)
0 m / 28 kt
Route: 🇮🇷 Kharg Island Gulf of OmanArabian SeaSri Lanka SouthAndaman SeaMalacca StraitSingapore StraitTaiwan Strait 🇨🇳 Qingdao

Current status · last computed 2026-07-26 · weekly

Elevated risk. Active war-risk exposure (Persian / Arabian Gulf) on this corridor — confirm current carrier routing and any surcharges before fixing.

Why this lane scores Elevated — the 11 signals

ArcNautical's voyage engine composites eleven independent intelligence signals along the actual sea route, then weights each by how much it is driving risk on this corridor right now. Bar width = current severity of that signal; the percentage = its share of the composite score.

JWC Listed Areas 15% of score
Route transits 2 JWC listed area(s): Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean (HRA), Persian / Arabian Gulf severity 72/100 · 2 signals
Piracy Incidents 15% of score
2 piracy incident(s) within 100nm of route severity 35/100 · 2 signals
Conflict Events 12% of score
2 conflict events within 200nm: 1 armed conflict(s), 1 military incident(s) severity 53/100 · 2 signals
Marine Weather 12% of score
Light to moderate seas: 0.0m waves, 28kt winds | Seasonal: Arabian Sea monsoon/cyclone season (1.7x baseline risk, July) severity 48/100 · 8 signals
Sanctions Exposure 9% of score
Transit through IR (OFAC, EU, UNSC) severity 100/100 · 1 signal
Dark Activity 8% of score
13 dark activity event(s) within 80nm: 7 high, 5 medium severity 100/100 · 13 signals
Country Risk 8% of score
Route near 7 elevated-risk country/countries: IR, CN, IN, PK, LK, ID, TW severity 30/100 · 7 signals
Navigational Warnings 6% of score
No active navigational warnings near route severity 0/100
Chokepoint Disruption 6% of score
Route transits 3 chokepoint(s): Malacca Strait (normal), Strait of Hormuz (normal), Taiwan Strait (normal) severity 0/100
AIS Disruptions 5% of score
No AIS disruptions near route severity 0/100
Natural Disasters 4% of score
No natural disaster events near route severity 0/100

War-risk & piracy zones on this route

Listed-area intersections come from the Joint War Committee (JWC) hull-war zones, tested against the route geometry — not a country list. These are the areas underwriters load war-risk premium for.

2 recent piracy / armed-robbery incidents logged within 100 nm of the route (most recent: armed robbery near the South China Sea).

Sanctions exposure on the corridor

This route runs 2% of its distance through sanctioned waters. A leg inside a sanctioned EEZ is where AIS-gap, dark-STS and shadow-fleet activity concentrate — the geography compliance teams have to be able to defend.

Route transits 1 sanctioned EEZ(s): Iran [OFAC, UNSC] (2%). 10 other EEZ(s): Andaman and Nicobar (14%), Indonesia (13%), Vietnam (9%), Taiwan (8%), China (8%), Sri Lanka (7%), Oman (5%), Malaysia (2%), Abu musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb (1%), Singapore (1%)

Geography is only half the question. Before you fix the cargo, screen the specific vessel and its ownership chain against OFAC / EU / UN / UK lists:

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Score your actual Kharg Island → Qingdao voyage

This profile is the corridor baseline. Run the live scorer with your vessel, load condition, speed and departure date for a voyage-specific risk read, a Monte-Carlo ETA distribution, and a downloadable report.

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Freight platforms price this lane. ArcNautical tells you what could go wrong on it.

Put this corridor risk in your product

Run the same Kharg Island to Qingdao route through the Voyage Risk API playground, inspect the JSON contract, and request a test key for your integration.

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FAQ

Is the Kharg Island to Qingdao shipping route high risk?

ArcNautical scores it 47/100 — Elevated risk. The largest drivers are JWC Listed Areas, Piracy Incidents, Conflict Events. The route crosses Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean (HRA) and Persian / Arabian Gulf, and runs 2% of its distance through sanctioned waters.

Which chokepoints does the Kharg Island–Qingdao route cross?

Malacca Strait, Singapore Strait, Taiwan Strait. Total distance 6,174 nautical miles, roughly 18 days at 14 knots.

Does the Kharg Island to Qingdao route pass through sanctioned waters?

Route transits 1 sanctioned EEZ(s): Iran [OFAC, UNSC] (2%). 10 other EEZ(s): Andaman and Nicobar (14%), Indonesia (13%), Vietnam (9%), Taiwan (8%), China (8%), Sri Lanka (7%), Oman (5%), Malaysia (2%), Abu musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb (1%), Singapore (1%)