{
  "title": "ArcNautical Dark-Fleet Flag Brief",
  "issue": 1,
  "headline": "Of 1,445 OFAC-designated vessels with a recorded flag, only 33 (2.3%) fly a flag from a transparent public-UBO register.",
  "provenance": {
    "source": "US Treasury OFAC Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list",
    "source_url": "https://sanctionslistservice.ofac.treas.gov/api/PublicationPreview/exports/SDN.CSV",
    "data_as_of": "2026-05-19",
    "parsed_by": "ArcNautical production screening engine (commit 003e42f)",
    "snapshot_path": "_test-output\\review-batch\\presend-9720263\\9720263\\snapshots\\sanctions-ofac-sdn.json",
    "generated_at": "2026-05-19T10:45:18.042Z",
    "reproducible": "Re-pull SDN.CSV from source_url and re-run scripts/dark-fleet-flag-brief.ts. The shell-jurisdiction definition is server/arcnautical/scoring/v1/jurisdiction-tiers.ts (the same module the vessel-dossier product uses)."
  },
  "coverage": {
    "designated_vessels_total": 1480,
    "flag_recorded": 1445,
    "flag_recorded_pct_of_total": 97.6,
    "flag_not_recorded": 35,
    "tonnage_caveat": "OFAC records a usable tonnage figure for under 4% of designated vessels, so this Brief is reported by vessel count, not tonnage. Tonnage-weighting would be computed from an unrepresentative ~4% sample and is deliberately not used."
  },
  "split": {
    "tier1_transparent": {
      "n": 33,
      "pct": 2.3,
      "definition": "Flag is an EU member, the UK, Norway or Iceland — jurisdictions with a public, queryable beneficial-ownership register (jurisdiction-tiers.ts Tier 1)."
    },
    "tier3_shell": {
      "n": 486,
      "pct": 33.6,
      "definition": "Classic flag-of-convenience / tax-haven registry where UBO disclosure is intentionally restricted (jurisdiction-tiers.ts Tier 3).",
      "top_flags": [
        {
          "flag": "Panama",
          "n": 260
        },
        {
          "flag": "Liberia",
          "n": 63
        },
        {
          "flag": "Palau",
          "n": 55
        },
        {
          "flag": "Cook Islands",
          "n": 38
        },
        {
          "flag": "Comoros",
          "n": 35
        },
        {
          "flag": "Antigua and Barbuda",
          "n": 7
        },
        {
          "flag": "St. Kitts and Nevis",
          "n": 6
        },
        {
          "flag": "Cayman Islands",
          "n": 5
        }
      ]
    },
    "sanctioned_state": {
      "n": 516,
      "pct": 35.7,
      "definition": "Flag of a comprehensively/territorially sanctioned state (Russia, Iran, DPRK, Venezuela, Cuba, Syria) — a state-instrument flag, distinct from a commercial flag of convenience.",
      "top_flags": [
        {
          "flag": "Russia",
          "n": 246
        },
        {
          "flag": "Iran",
          "n": 156
        },
        {
          "flag": "Democratic People's Republic of Korea",
          "n": 73
        },
        {
          "flag": "Venezuela",
          "n": 38
        },
        {
          "flag": "Cuba",
          "n": 2
        },
        {
          "flag": "Syria",
          "n": 1
        }
      ]
    },
    "other_unclassified": {
      "n": 394,
      "pct": 27.3,
      "definition": "Residual, deliberately heterogeneous: emerging/grey flag-of-convenience registries (Barbados, Gabon, Cameroon, …), large non-transparent registries (China), and falsified registrations. NOT claimed as uniformly anything — see the named sub-findings.",
      "top_flags": [
        {
          "flag": "China",
          "n": 166
        },
        {
          "flag": "Barbados",
          "n": 65
        },
        {
          "flag": "Gabon",
          "n": 30
        },
        {
          "flag": "Cameroon",
          "n": 22
        },
        {
          "flag": "San Marino",
          "n": 12
        },
        {
          "flag": "Gambia",
          "n": 12
        },
        {
          "flag": "Guyana",
          "n": 10
        },
        {
          "flag": "Sao Tome and Principe",
          "n": 8
        },
        {
          "flag": "Vietnam",
          "n": 7
        },
        {
          "flag": "Tanzania",
          "n": 6
        },
        {
          "flag": "Sierra Leone",
          "n": 6
        },
        {
          "flag": "Togo",
          "n": 6
        }
      ]
    },
    "tier2_restricted": {
      "n": 16,
      "pct": 1.1,
      "definition": "UBO disclosure required by law but the register is closed to the public (US, Singapore, etc.) — jurisdiction-tiers.ts Tier 2."
    }
  },
  "sub_findings": {
    "impossible_flags": {
      "note": "Sanctioned vessels claiming the flag of a landlocked state or a state with no genuine open ship registry — a falsified-registration indicator. Small n, reported as a named sub-finding, never the lead number.",
      "flags": [
        {
          "flag": "San Marino",
          "n": 12,
          "reason": "landlocked, no ship registry"
        },
        {
          "flag": "Mongolia",
          "n": 3,
          "reason": "landlocked"
        },
        {
          "flag": "Eswatini",
          "n": 3,
          "reason": "landlocked"
        }
      ],
      "total": 18
    },
    "by_program_least_transparent": [
      {
        "program": "DPRK",
        "designated_vessels": 28,
        "transparent_flag": 0,
        "transparent_pct": 0
      },
      {
        "program": "DPRK4",
        "designated_vessels": 57,
        "transparent_flag": 0,
        "transparent_pct": 0
      },
      {
        "program": "NPWMD",
        "designated_vessels": 122,
        "transparent_flag": 0,
        "transparent_pct": 0
      },
      {
        "program": "IFSR",
        "designated_vessels": 128,
        "transparent_flag": 0,
        "transparent_pct": 0
      },
      {
        "program": "RUSSIA-EO14024",
        "designated_vessels": 425,
        "transparent_flag": 0,
        "transparent_pct": 0
      },
      {
        "program": "GLOMAG",
        "designated_vessels": 157,
        "transparent_flag": 0,
        "transparent_pct": 0
      },
      {
        "program": "IRAN-EO13846",
        "designated_vessels": 117,
        "transparent_flag": 0,
        "transparent_pct": 0
      },
      {
        "program": "IRAN-EO13902",
        "designated_vessels": 268,
        "transparent_flag": 0,
        "transparent_pct": 0
      },
      {
        "program": "UKRAINE-EO13662",
        "designated_vessels": 182,
        "transparent_flag": 0,
        "transparent_pct": 0
      },
      {
        "program": "SDGT",
        "designated_vessels": 124,
        "transparent_flag": 2,
        "transparent_pct": 1.6
      }
    ]
  }
}